How To Create Luck – The Simple Strategy Billionaires Use
Summary
- Successful people understand probability, which is fundamental in investing and assessing the return on investment in business.
- Volume negates luck. Consistently high output can reduce the impact of chance and even compensate for a lack of skill initially.
- When beginning something new, it's normal to be unskilled. Social media can create unrealistic expectations of becoming a millionaire instantly, thus hindering progress.
- Persistence in volume can lead to an improvement in skill over time. For example, it might take a thousand cold calls to secure a deal, and with enough practice, one's performance will naturally improve.
- It's the small, incremental skills learned along the journey that pave the way to success, not just the final act of closing a sale.
- Quitting should be a last resort, only if the entire industry has dissipated, which is unlikely. Skill acquisition through volume is crucial for success.
- Greater skill brings with it "luck," as expertise increases the chances of positive outcomes.
- Early success can distort expectations; it's important to understand that a significant amount of effort and rejection may still be required.
- Understanding the Law of Large Numbers can help in realizing that increasing volume will eventually lead to success. This principle applies both to new projects and to long-term pursuits.
- Even if you don't reach millionaire status by a certain age, the experience and skills developed are valuable and can lead to future financial success.
- Constant effort and building skill brick by brick are essential to creating a pathway to your goals. Consistent volume and dedication are key.
Video
How To Take Action
I would suggest implementing the understanding of probability and volume to improve your chances of success. Remember, volume negates luck. You want to put out a high volume of work to even out the odds and cover your bases. Here's what you need to do:
- Start by recognizing that being unskilled at something new is normal. Don't get stuck because you're not great right away.
- Aim for high volume output in whatever you're doing. If it's cold calling, sales, or sending emails, more attempts mean more chances for success.
- Keep persisting because volume will help you improve your skill. It's a numbers game – the more you do, the better you get.
- Focus on the incremental skills you're learning, not just the end goal. Every little step is building towards success.
- Don't quit too easily. Only consider quitting if the entire industry vanishes, which is very unlikely.
Let's use cold calling as an example:
- Set a target: Decide on the number of calls you will make each day or week. Aim high.
- Practice consistently: Every call improves your skill, even if it doesn't lead to a sale.
- Keep track: Monitor your progress, note what works and what doesn't, and adjust.
- Learn from each interaction: Each call teaches you something new. Use this to fine-tune your approach.
- Play the long game: Success rarely comes overnight. Commit to a longer period, like six months to a year, to practice and improve.
This is how you grow and increase your "luck." By doing more, you'll pick up skills that elevate your chance for positive outcomes. Stick with it, and be patient with your growth. Success is a series of small bricks laid over time. Keep laying them, and trust the process.
Quotes by Alex Hormozi
"Volume negates luck"
– Alex Hormozi
"If you want to become lucky, if you want to have probability on your side, you simply increase n, increase the number, increase the volume"
– Alex Hormozi
"The only thing that separates you from what you want is skill and the only way to acquire that skill is volume"
– Alex Hormozi
"The more volume you do, the better you get, and therefore the luckier you become"
– Alex Hormozi
"Keep laying the bricks, keep laying the bricks, all the way across the bridge from where you are to where you want to be"
– Alex Hormozi
Full Transcript
what's going on everyone i want to share a quick lesson that i had yesterday with my 18 year old neighbor uh who's going through his entrepreneurial journey and this is a lot of fun for me because uh he's at ground zero so i'm hearing you know the anxieties and the worries and the false beliefs kind of come up as they go and i get to you know confront them and kind of ask good questions and so uh kind of the lesson or the theme of yesterday uh was around volume and luck right and so one of the key differences that i see with people who are successful and do grow and do scale is that they have a firm understanding of probability all right and what that means is chance what's the percentage likelihood that something happens right if you want to be an investor right then you have to calculate the the risk associated with an investment that's a probability outcome if you are a business owner right you have to gamble on marketing and assess the probability that you'll get a return on that investment right and what's interesting is that volume negates luck all right so if you can put that in your brain volume negates luck and so luck is a word that people who don't understand probability use as as a space filler but if i were to say hey for every uh you know 100 000 emails i send i get 1 000 back and from 1 000 that i get back i know that i'm going to close 500 of those people on a deal that's not realistic math i would probably close a lot more than that but the point is um but if i if i explain that math to you you probably i'd be like is that luck that i closed 500 deals you'd probably be like no that's just probability that's just i know that if i reach this many people the probability that there is one person who's interested in the in the services that i have is high right and the thing is is that if you do enough volume you can negate luck all right you can also negate skill which is a byproduct of the volume all right so let me let me let me dive into that let me unpack that for a second so let's say you suck right because you're brand new and of course you would suck because why would you be good because you've never done this before whatever it is right and so this is like the conversation i'm having with my neighbor you can imagine me as like like coaching at 18 year old get him like of course you suck you're supposed to suck you're not supposed to be good right and the thing is is like because of social media because of instagram because of all these things everyone especially you know the guys who are younger right now and maybe it's the same for guys who are in their 30s whatever is that they just immediately assume they should be a millionaire the first year right it's just like i should be a millionaire why am i not a millionaire right and so that's what stops 99 of people from being successful because they're unwilling to suck right and it hurts their ego too much to be bad and so then they say ah this isn't for me right and so anyways back to the point of the volume versus you know negating the luck in the skill component is that let's say the normal numbers let's say i was i was coaching him on on cold calling right cause that's what he's doing right now and i said listen it's gonna take you know it should take you about a thousand cold calls to get you know one deal right and let's say he comes to me and he says well i've done five thousand right i'm like okay and so i don't have a deal i'm like and you suck of course you don't have a deal you've never done this before do another five thousand because the thing is eventually you will it will be unreasonable for you to suck anymore right it would be unreasonable for you to not have found one person if you do this for a straight year and i'm trying to paint this longer picture for him a year and i know when you're 18 a year sounds like forever but like a year if you did this for five years if you did nothing but cold call for five years do you think you would be good at cold calling he was like yeah probably i was like do you feel like you're much better now than you were one month ago when you started this he was like oh i'm like night and day better like i can get past you know i can open now i can have conversation i was getting hung up on i was like right and so you have this binary measure of progress which is i either closed the sale or i didn't close the sale when in reality there's tons of bricks on the bridge on the way to getting the first dollar over right and the first deal the first dollar independent of whatever you're doing is the always the hardest one and it's because you have to learn a lot of little skills before you get the big payoff right and most people learn one skill or don't learn a skill and then think up this isn't for me right and so i told him that the only way that i would give him my blessing for him to quit is if the enti he could convince me that the entire industry of wholesaling real estate had disappeared if you can convince me that the entire industry of wholesaling real estate has disappeared you will have my blessing to quit and obviously that's not going to happen because people have been making money in whole wholesaling real estate for a long time right there's always going to be inefficiencies in marketplaces between buyers and sellers right unless some magical technology comes through which it might in 10 years who knows but for right now it exists and so i said the only thing that separates you from what you want is skill and the only way to acquire that skill is volume right and the thing is is when you have enough skill you get luckier right you don't need to do 10 000 calls to get that one deal because honestly maybe in the beginning that is that is that is the biggest lay down person you'll ever have but then it gives you conviction that it can happen right and so um the more volume you do the better you get and therefore the luckier you become but the big picture is that people who invest people who who do business at larger scale just understand probability right they understand that there is a percentage now what's what's the the worst thing that can happen is let's say his this is this is a fun scenario to think about is let's say his first day he gets on the phone and he somehow closes the deal right and that one deal may have been that one deal out of 10 000 that if he had started at the other end of the call list it might have taken him a month to get there but he just happens to do it first how much do you think that messes him up a ton maybe maybe or probably even more than working really hard to get there and so i don't know about you but i feel like i've definitely had occasions where i've lucked out and then i start questioning myself what am i doing different what am i doing different you might not be doing anything different you might have just hit the hit the gold nugget way too early in the cycle and now you got to sift through a lot more no's to get to your next one you might have to sift through twice as many notes as normal because you gotta you gotta account for the nose from the first one that you never actually hit right and so anyways as i'm walking him through this right it just reminded me of how when people are starting out they don't understand the the concept of large numbers right if you want to become lucky if you want to have probability on your side you simply increase n increase the number increase the volume and eventually you will strike gold and the thing is is that most people just literally don't go long enough um he honestly was doing the the little system that he's that he's purchased the wrong way up until like a week ago and so i was like cool well your first three weeks are wasted that you weren't doing it the right way right you've now officially been doing this for seven days right do you feel like it's unreasonable like do you feel like it'd be reasonable for you to have a top one percent income in the united states after one month of learning a new skill he was like no and i was like then stop believing you should i was like if you do this for four years because he's not right now he's pushing off college to do this i was like if you do this for four straight years i was like do you think it would be reasonable that you'd be able to close one deal a month by the end of that and he was like yeah and i was like cool then you're already twice as wealthy as the average college person who would be leaving right except you have four more years of experience than they do and so i'm trying to like paint these paint just give him a different frame of seeing success and seeing the work that's required to get there and i was like what happens if what happens if in six years when you're 24 what happens if in six years 24 and you're not a millionaire yet what happens that he was like i mean i'd be you know i was like what you'd be disappointed you're not a millionaire at 24. come on man the thing is is he might actually be right if he actually sticks with it for six straight years but most people end up hopping and and always doing these half-built bridges where they they learn two three four of the skills but there's ten that they have to learn and they say this isn't for me and they jump to another one they start building a new bridge right when the reality is you just have to keep laying the bricks keep playing the bricks keep laying the bricks all the way across the bridge from where you are to where you want to be and then the first dollar walks across and it takes a lot of time to put those bricks in place and to figure out which brick you're missing and the only way to do it is more and that is how you'll get better at the skill that gets the dollar across the bridge so anyways more more more sagas of my 18 year old workout afternoon uh lessons i hope you enjoy this uh if you do you know subscribe like comment all that kind of good stuff uh and i'll see you in the next video